The experience of other sectors that have begun decarbonizing – not least energy – shows that a planned and guided transition is always better than an ad hoc, unmanaged process. Given the complexities of these interacting trends, policymakers and corporate leaders need to start getting in front of this issue now. As sales fall, declining revenue is likely to have significant welfare implications for farmers and other workers tied to the industrial meat-production systems. Livestock farming tends to be heavily subsidized in many countries, owing to the sector’s low margins and high levels of debt. When these products reach taste and price parity with meat, their uptake by consumers could accelerate very quickly indeed. Plant-based meat and milk sales are already trending up across the board in the EU, but also in countries like Thailand and South Africa.
Notwithstanding a recent slowdown, there is still growth in the uptake of alternative proteins – a food source that produces only a tiny fraction of the negative environmental and animal-welfare effects of traditional meat products. Over the past decade, the average person’s meat consumption has decreased by almost 17% in the United Kingdom and by 11% in Germany.
#Project cyndicate how to
Our latest event, What Economics is Missing, is now live.Ĭlick the link below for opening remarks from Dani Rodrik, followed by a discussion among Ashwini Deshpande, Raquel Fernández, Minouche Shafik, and Vera Songwe on how to achieve inclusivity in economics.įinally, consumers, too, are shifting away from meat and dairy. Farmers and companies alike should be prepared to adapt to changes that are now inevitable. The question now is not whether there will be increased regulation of the livestock industry, but what shape and form it will take. While livestock and agriculture have traditionally been excluded from most emissions-reduction schemes, policymakers in Denmark, the Netherlands, and New Zealand are already working to close this gap, and many other countries will soon follow suit. Given the increasing risk that infectious diseases will spread from animals to humans (zoonoses) through industrial livestock farming, the impetus for tighter regulation will only grow.
No wonder regulators are urgently seeking ways to target livestock pollution and produce more on less land. In Spain, factory-farm pollution has become so pervasive that pig manure has contaminated nearly one-quarter of all ground and surface water in the country. Beef production alone takes up some 60% of land used for agriculture, even though it contributes less than 2% of total calories consumed globally.
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Forests are razed to free up land not just for animal grazing but also for the additional crops needed to feed those animals. Moreover, animal agriculture is the main cause of deforestation and biodiversity loss. While agriculture accounts for nearly one-third of all greenhouse-gas emissions, livestock alone (particularly cattle) contribute nearly 15%. Policymakers are also waking up to the compelling body of evidence about industrial meat production’s environmental harms. Policymakers are thus left to consider whether and how to protect family farms, and how to avoid the risks of animal-welfare violations, poor working conditions, and diseases that are inherent in industrial livestock farming. As a result, the European Union lost more than one-third of its farms, and 40% of its livestock farms, from 2005 to 2020. Owing to the challenging economics of farming and the power of a small number of giant industry incumbents, farms are being consolidated in the name of efficiency and economies of scale. For every farm manager under 40, there are three over the age of 65 in Europe and from Sub-Saharan Africa to Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean, the number of older people living in rural areas is increasing while the number of young people declines.Īt the same time, farms are becoming larger, and small farm operations are being squeezed. While farmers are growing older and leaving the land for other pursuits or retirement, the agriculture sector is struggling to attract new entrants – and not just in richer industrialized countries. The preparation will require a careful inventory of farmers, workers, and consumers’ needs.
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